Battle of browsers: How to break the Microsoft monopoly?

With a whopping 96 percent usage, Internet Explorer is undoubtedly the ruling browser for the Internet. AOL’s Netscape on the other hand enjoys a measly 3 % market share. But AOL is not giving up, it is making ground for releasing a new version of the Netscape browser that would be integrated with AOL’s client software. Giga suggests some revival strategies for Netscape.

AOL’s planned migration to some form of the Netscape/Mozilla/Gecko browser in place of Internet Explorer (IE) has been rumored for many months and if it comes to pass, it will create an additional testing burden on IT development shops. The recent announcement from Webside Story’s Statmarket.com Web survey that Netscape’s market share has fallen to just more than 3 percent worldwide is a cause for concern.

With Internet Explorer at almost 96 percent, the term "browser war" would seem to be no longer relevant. However, AOL does not view this to be the case despite the current market share numbers. AOL, likely acting out of fear, is concerned that a Microsoft-dominated browser market will have the effect of directing Internet users to Microsoft or Microsoft partner Web sites.

This will, in turn, impact AOL’s ability to derive revenue from its own AOL subscriber base. The online content market is similar to the TV market. Cable television sells content (programs) to viewers. Broadcast television sells viewers to advertisers. AOL and MSN are some odd mixture of these models and at odds with each other over potential revenue streams.

AOL must overcome at least five hurdles to gain significant market share for its Netscape browser, even with the switch away from IE as the default for forthcoming AOL client’s software versions:

• AOL must deliver a lean, high performing, quality and compatible browser to the market. Previous Netscape versions have developed the reputation of being "buggy" or incompatible with newer standards or technologies. AOL will need to get it right the first time, since there will likely be little room for error or customer dissatisfaction.

• AOL replaces IE with Netscape in substantial numbers. This path is fraught with potential pitfalls if AOL actually requires the use of the Netscape browser. Existing AOL clients may create uproar if their browser is switched and ends up breaking their favorite sites or not performing up to their expectations.

• Further complicating this route would be an argument used by AOL in the Microsoft trial, the accusation of the lack of choice. If AOL does not allow or in some way support alternative browsers to work in conjunction with its service, negative publicity and, potentially, lawsuits may surface.

• Microsoft makes a substantial mistake. Despite a number of security faults with IE in the recent past, consumers still seem to prefer Internet Explorer as their default browser. Unless Microsoft fails to innovate or makes some sort of egregious error with regard to IE, AOL may still not be able to gain.

• The new AOL browser must minimize switching costs e.g., by including "IE compatibility mode" (like Excel and Word did when they were trying to get a toehold in a Lotus 123/Wordperfect world). This could include features like IE-style menus and terminology, as well as still potentially allowing IE for those who prefer not to switch.

• AOL must provide enterprise-class support for the Netscape browser to move beyond the consumer market. When Netscape, and later AOL by acquisition, discontinued support for its browser, organizations began their migration away from Netscape with additional earnest.

Without a renewed support program, AOL cannot expect IT managers that must justify and protect technology investments to choose the Netscape browser over Internet Explorer.

These hurdles may in fact be insurmountable, but it appears that AOL believes it’s in its best interest to invest significant resources in releasing a new version of the Netscape browser and integrate it with AOL’s client software. Organizations cannot ignore the activities of AOL in the browser market despite the existing low market share numbers and should continue to monitor for any uptake in the Netscape browser after AOL releases its new client later this year.